Why the Best and the Most Qualified Will Keep Losing Elections in Nigeria

By Anayo M. Nwosu

Nothing worries an incumbent in an executive position who feels that he has done so much than the fear that his successor would not be able to sustain or improve on his achievements.

I have once felt it and I could relate with that huge burden.

As an outgoing president of National Association Microbiology Students (NAMS) at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, I craved to hand over to someone I thought could deliver. Only aspirants in their third year could succeed me and I narrowed my searchlight on two front line aspirants namely Dom and Chucks.

Dom was more mature and had held similar position in the college of health sciences before he enrolled into UNN for  a degree programme. Chucks on the other hand was far younger than Dom but was very humble, easy going and could relate easily with students below and above his class. He was also his class representative. Chucks even though Igbo, greeted his elders as a Yoruba boy would.

My executive committee members knew that I preferred Dom to Chucks to succeed me and they understood my reasons. However, a handful of them believed that Dom was not reaching out to people.

During the electioneering campaign, Chucks worked harder than Dom. He obtained the room numbers of virtually all the eligible voters and visited them asking for their support. He was able to reach out to all the members of secret cults in the class as well as the tongue speaking Christians. Despite his understanding that I didn't want him to succeed me, he kept on pleading for my understanding and support.

Very curiously Dom was complacent. He was confident that he would win. He believed that the association members should be reasonable enough to know what was good for them. He left everything for the manifesto night.

I was to learn that Chucks played a fast one on Dom. He made his opponent feel more complacent by calling him "my president!" Some other times he would hail him thus: "Oga Dom, I know you will win. I'm just contesting for fun."

And Dom went to sleep.

Dom could not achieve much during the manifesto night as Chucks' rented crowd kept shouting "Na Chucks we know ooo! Na Chucks we go follow!" to Dom's discomfiture.

Voting followed immediately after the manifestos and in three hours, the results were out.

Chucks won with a landslide!

In a democracy, opinion leaders and the influencers are the pillars of any victory. An aspirant or a candidate cannot hang the roof of his aspiration in the air. It must be anchored on strong pillars.

Any leader that wants to ride on his or her personal qualities to win majority votes in Nigeria is not being pragmatic. You must relate with the controllers of the electorates who have herds mentality.

In Nigeria, and especially in the hinterland, majority of the voters are controlled by powerful influencers. On the election day, the voters consult these chieftains, who they see as helpers, on who to vote for.

In 2015, President Buhari won the presidency when most of the voters influencers, especially from the north and southwest decided to support his candidacy. If the influencers citing aloofness and not being carried along decide to withdraw their support, the president should feel worried. Whosoever is closer to the voters influences their votes.

It is instructive to note that it was the same crowd that shouted "Hossana! Hossana!" to Jesus on his way to Jerusalem that were induced or influenced by the chief priests and Pharisees to shout "Crucify him! Crucify him!" six days after.

The multitudes that attend a campaign rally don't necessarily translate to final votes. The influencers don't stop their catchment voters from attending opponents' rallies but they know when to tilt the balance.

Experienced politicians know the value of few minutes to the start of voting. That's when the deed is done.